I didn't write the article below but was so impressed with the details and how factual this report is that I felt it worth posting here. It does not paint a pretty picture but does give us due warning to be ready for what is 99% likely in our near future. If you're a praying man or woman this would be the time to turn up the volume....
Source: Copyright 2009, The Dilenschneider Group, Inc.
Even though many prognosticators are optimistic
that we could be at the end of what has become
known as the “Great Recession,” there are disturbing
signs that suggest America is about to
confront the possible collapse of the commercial
real estate market—represented by $6 trillion
plus in total asset value, and supported by $3.5
trillion in debt. Be prepared!
Owners and developers of office and residential
buildings, stores, hotels and other commercial
real estate are coming under greatly increased
pressure to meet their debt obligations. Sharply
falling rents, mounting vacancies, and unfinished,
abandoned projects across the country have
raised genuine concern among banks, other lenders
and regulators that any hoped-for recovery
may be derailed before it really gets started.
Some $83 billion in office, retail, industrial and
apartment properties have fallen into default,
foreclosure or bankruptcy thus far this year, according
to research firm Real Capital Analytics.
Some see the commercial default rate hitting 4.1
percent by year’s end. Meanwhile, with property
values down an estimated 40% from their
2007 peak, most lenders still remain reluctant to
foreclose on devalued properties in such a deadly
market.
Commercial real estate now accounts for 13% of
the Gross Domestic Product and plays an integral
role in the U.S. economy. It is a linchpin in the
nation’s financial system.
Key Concerns:
• Private commercial construction will continue
to contract sharply, impacting GDP growth.
• Nearly $1 trillion in short-term commercial
mortgages are slated to mature by the end of
2010.
• Lenders’ losses may total $250-500 billion,
especially hurting regional and local banks.
• Banks’ commercial real estate losses will keep
them cautious on lending through 2010.
All this is happening at the same time that residential
mortgage foreclosures are continuing to
rise sharply, triggered by the nation’s high unemployment
rate. Estimates suggest a staggering
1.8 million borrowers will lose their homes this
year, up from 1.4 million in 2008.
The Arrival of the Commercial Real Estate
Crisis
According to Richard Parkus, a Deutsche Bank
analyst who wrote a commercial real estate report
in late April 2009, an estimated $1.3 trillion in
loans to commercial property owners will be
coming due between now and 2013. Parkus estimated
that at least half the loans—and two-thirds
of those loans packaged and resold as securities—
will not qualify for refinancing.
“People are only now beginning to realize there
is a looming crisis,” he said.
The Achilles’ heel of commercial real estate is
vacancy rates. Not surprisingly, vacancies nationwide
are up and expected to reach 13.5% for
retail and 17% for office buildings. This, in turn,
decreases the potential income that commercial
properties need in order to make mortgage payments.
“I doubt too many banks will want to own a lot of
commercial properties that are empty,” comments
George Raitu, an economist for the National Association
of Realtors.
The current extraordinary weakness in the U.S.
commercial real estate market is poised to plunge
the economy under water for a very long time.
Some 9 million jobs are generated or supported
by real estate. These jobs touch all areas of the
economy and are in construction, planning, architecture,
environmental consultation and remediation, engineering, building,
maintenance and security, management, leasing, brokerage,
investment and mortgage lending, accounting and legal
services, interior design, landscaping, cleaning services and more.
The repercussions go further than the workforce,
however. The implosion of the commercial real
estate market could significantly reduce the value
of Americans’ pension funds invested in commercial
real estate equity. Construction, hotel and
retail workers will lose jobs. Moreover, state and
local governments will confront the prospect of
reduced tax revenue and the loss of recording and
transaction fees.
In testimony before Congress in early July, Jeffrey
Deboer, CEO of the Real Estate Roundtable,
said: “The current credit system in America
simply does not have the capacity to meet the legitimate
demand for commercial real estate debt.
As demands for debt remain unmet, stress to the
financial services system overall, individual financial
institutions, and those who have invested
in real estate directly or indirectly will increase.”
Assessing the situation, he added, “This is a market
failure of catastrophic proportions.”
The Crisis is Pervasive
These are the dimensions of the potential crisis:
• The number of transactions is down 80%.
• Asset values are estimated to have fallen an
average of 35% from their peak.
• Capitalization rates have climbed 250 basis
points while rents have declined up to 20% depending
on property type.
• With so few transactions, there is no effective
price discovery.
• Without sufficient price discovery, it is almost
impossible to determine loan-to-value, the
linchpin metric in lending.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told
Congress in July that he is encouraging banks
to work out troubled real estate loans. Yet Bernanke
believes that anything more substantial in
the form of intervention would require Congress
to decide. “I think, really, Congress has to make
those trade-offs between the fiscal cost, the fiscal
risk and …a very real risk on the side of foreclosures
and the problems in commercial real
estate,” he said.
Averting a Crash Landing
What can be done to avert a second economic
disaster?
Deboer of the Real Estate Roundtable recommended
to Congress that the following federal
policy actions be enacted as soon as possible:
1. Extend the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan
Facility (TALF) beyond its current December 31,
2009 sunset date, through the end of 2010.
2. Establish a federally backed credit facility,
possibly created from the PPIP structure or a
privately-funded guarantee program for originating
new commercial real estate loans.
3. Encourage foreign capital investment in U.S.
real estate by amending or repealing the outdated
Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act
(FIRPTA).
4. Encourage banks and loan servicers to extend
performing loans, based on cash flow analysis;
and temporarily amend real estate mortgage
investment conduit (REMIC) regulations to
facilitate early review and possible modifications
to the terms of commercial mortgage loans that
have been securitized in CMBS.
5. Reject new anti-real estate investment taxes,
such as the carried interest proposal, and provide
a five-year carry-back for the net operating losses
of all businesses.
© Copyright 2009, The Dilenschneider Group, Inc.
4 Implications For Business
• Understand your immediate commercial real
estate situation. What is the financial health of
your landlord? What is the vacancy rate in your
building? Are building services being cut back to
save money? How is all this affecting your own
business, its brand, its image?
• With the possible collapse of the commercial
real estate market, unemployment will persist in
all job sectors.
• Be prepared for an increase in crime as unemployment
benefits end for America’s jobless.
• The financial future of companies with large
real estate holdings will be suspect.
• If your building’s ownership defaults, how is
the lender going to remediate and how does this
affect your work environment? What circumstances
in your lease allow you to terminate the
lease? Will you be forced to move your business
to another location? Does this have business
interruption insurance implications?
• Each business will need to engage its elected
officials at the local, state and federal level on its
behalf.
• If a building or neighborhood is in a downward
vacancy spiral, is your business taking steps to
provide a safe work environment for your employees
(e.g., dealing with empty parking lots,
too much empty space for security guards to
adequately monitor, etc.)?
• Your company’s pension committee needs to determine
the nature of its investment in commercial
real estate securities in both equity and fixed
income portfolios. The committee will need to
be in close communication with its investment
advisers and managers on this question.
Conclusion
The day of reckoning is approaching in the commercial
real estate market. The vital question is
whether the shoe will drop softly. As we await
its landing, it’s worth remembering the words of
U.S. Airways hero pilot of Flight 1549, Captain
Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger, moments before
landing in the Hudson River, “Brace for impact.”
The commercial real estate market—and, therefore,
many of us who will be impacted if the
economy takes another major hit—need to brace
for impact and hope for the best.
© Copyright 2009, The Dilenschneider Group, Inc
Friday, October 23, 2009
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Call it in!
Ah it's Sunday night, the 18th of Oct, 2009 and it's cold here in MI. Winter is on our doorstep. PA and CT and maybe even some of the other New England states, a neighbor told me, got snow, lots of snow. Brrrr!
Speaking of snow, wind and ice hitting us overnight without warning, it reminds me of how it feels to be side swiped by a four wheeler. One minute you're running smoothly down the turnpike, the next minute your truck is laying on it's side, smoke billowing into the air and your head spinning so fast from what just happened you cannot focus your eyes. You're in a fog of questions, what just happened?
A four wheeler who thinks he owns the road, who cares not how much larger a tractor trailer is than his little coup, believes he (or she) can zip in and out of lanes like the highway was put there for playing tag with the other vehicles or to show off just how great their driving skills are. What a crock! If I were a cop I'd have myself a field day with those drivers! Not one would get past me without a hefty ticket and hour long reprimand. But that's just me.
As a trucker you face idiot drivers every day. Something you never get accustomed to but because it's your job, you grit your teeth, say 10 hail Marys or the Lord's prayer 10 times before you turn the key in your ignition. You know you'll be faced, at least once on any given day, with a road hog idiot. It's one of the unpleasant and quite frankly dangers of the job you do. But what about trucker road rage? There are times you may be facing a truck driver who is mad as hell and he's rolling down the big road behind the wheel. Now that could turn out to not be a pleasant situation!
I once was behind two trucks, one in each lane, side by side. It was January here in MI and the roads were not in good shape. At first I didn't think much of the two trucks as I was under the assumption that the one in the fast lane was simply passing the other truck.
Then I noticed the truck in the fast lane came over the line like he was going to sideswipe the other driver's truck. Or could it be the guy was asleep at the wheel at 3:30 in the afternoon? I slowed down to put myself at least 10 car lengths behind them so as not to be in the path of metal and glass that could fly back in my path if the two road warriers collided.
Another minute went by and the trucker in the slow lane moves over the line toward the guy in the other lane. Ut oh, I'm thinking what is going on? Surely not both drivers are asleep! This happened back and forth five to six more times.
I decided to turn my CB to channel 19. Good thing I did. I could stop guessing what the problem could be. The two swerving drivers ahead of me were cursing each other out like a red headed stepmother scolding step kids who just tied her in a chair and were pulling her hair out in clumps! The drivers continued their tirade at each other and for at least 2 or 3 miles would act as though they were trying to run each other off the road. Luckily there were no other vehicles in sight, except for me, far, far behind them, or there surely would have been a problem of the super nova kind. I was in a quandry of what to do, if anything I could do, about this unhappy event. It seemd to me that clearly road rage was about to claim more victims.
I grabbed the mike and asked the drivers could they please pay attention to the road and lighten up a little. If not then take their fight elsewhere but just get off the road before somebody gets hurt.
Well, THAT was not taken very well! I was told to shut my yap and that I should get off at the next exit. I decide I would take their advice. I got close enough to get both driver's plates and company names and took the next exit. I called 911 and each driver's company. I don't know the outcome but I'm betting those two drivers were soon pulled over and relieved of their driving duty for at least that day.
I hate to rat somebody out but that was a dangerous situation. Those drivers were not only endangering their lives but possibly others could have gotten hurt or worse, dead. There's not a better way to end your career than having an accident that, even if not your fault, harms another human being. And the guilt one lives with never goes away. I may have saved those truckers from doing something that would have changed their lives forever.
Conclusion:
Don't hesitate to call in four wheelers or truckers when you witness obvious problems. You could end up saving someone's career, prison time or life. You're not a rat for doing so and you will accomplish your good deed for the day.
I must say 99% of truckers are good folk. Most put safety first unlike a large percentile of four wheelers. So I'm not at all pointing a finger at our truck drivers but there are a handful that get hot headed now and again and are just an accident away from a diaster.
Buckle up drivers and pull out your winter gear. Winter is starting early, yet again, for most of the country and you'll have to keep your wit's sharp and mind clear, get enough rest and be ready for anything!
Marge @ Large
DriverFinder.net
Speaking of snow, wind and ice hitting us overnight without warning, it reminds me of how it feels to be side swiped by a four wheeler. One minute you're running smoothly down the turnpike, the next minute your truck is laying on it's side, smoke billowing into the air and your head spinning so fast from what just happened you cannot focus your eyes. You're in a fog of questions, what just happened?
A four wheeler who thinks he owns the road, who cares not how much larger a tractor trailer is than his little coup, believes he (or she) can zip in and out of lanes like the highway was put there for playing tag with the other vehicles or to show off just how great their driving skills are. What a crock! If I were a cop I'd have myself a field day with those drivers! Not one would get past me without a hefty ticket and hour long reprimand. But that's just me.
As a trucker you face idiot drivers every day. Something you never get accustomed to but because it's your job, you grit your teeth, say 10 hail Marys or the Lord's prayer 10 times before you turn the key in your ignition. You know you'll be faced, at least once on any given day, with a road hog idiot. It's one of the unpleasant and quite frankly dangers of the job you do. But what about trucker road rage? There are times you may be facing a truck driver who is mad as hell and he's rolling down the big road behind the wheel. Now that could turn out to not be a pleasant situation!
I once was behind two trucks, one in each lane, side by side. It was January here in MI and the roads were not in good shape. At first I didn't think much of the two trucks as I was under the assumption that the one in the fast lane was simply passing the other truck.
Then I noticed the truck in the fast lane came over the line like he was going to sideswipe the other driver's truck. Or could it be the guy was asleep at the wheel at 3:30 in the afternoon? I slowed down to put myself at least 10 car lengths behind them so as not to be in the path of metal and glass that could fly back in my path if the two road warriers collided.
Another minute went by and the trucker in the slow lane moves over the line toward the guy in the other lane. Ut oh, I'm thinking what is going on? Surely not both drivers are asleep! This happened back and forth five to six more times.
I decided to turn my CB to channel 19. Good thing I did. I could stop guessing what the problem could be. The two swerving drivers ahead of me were cursing each other out like a red headed stepmother scolding step kids who just tied her in a chair and were pulling her hair out in clumps! The drivers continued their tirade at each other and for at least 2 or 3 miles would act as though they were trying to run each other off the road. Luckily there were no other vehicles in sight, except for me, far, far behind them, or there surely would have been a problem of the super nova kind. I was in a quandry of what to do, if anything I could do, about this unhappy event. It seemd to me that clearly road rage was about to claim more victims.
I grabbed the mike and asked the drivers could they please pay attention to the road and lighten up a little. If not then take their fight elsewhere but just get off the road before somebody gets hurt.
Well, THAT was not taken very well! I was told to shut my yap and that I should get off at the next exit. I decide I would take their advice. I got close enough to get both driver's plates and company names and took the next exit. I called 911 and each driver's company. I don't know the outcome but I'm betting those two drivers were soon pulled over and relieved of their driving duty for at least that day.
I hate to rat somebody out but that was a dangerous situation. Those drivers were not only endangering their lives but possibly others could have gotten hurt or worse, dead. There's not a better way to end your career than having an accident that, even if not your fault, harms another human being. And the guilt one lives with never goes away. I may have saved those truckers from doing something that would have changed their lives forever.
Conclusion:
Don't hesitate to call in four wheelers or truckers when you witness obvious problems. You could end up saving someone's career, prison time or life. You're not a rat for doing so and you will accomplish your good deed for the day.
I must say 99% of truckers are good folk. Most put safety first unlike a large percentile of four wheelers. So I'm not at all pointing a finger at our truck drivers but there are a handful that get hot headed now and again and are just an accident away from a diaster.
Buckle up drivers and pull out your winter gear. Winter is starting early, yet again, for most of the country and you'll have to keep your wit's sharp and mind clear, get enough rest and be ready for anything!
Marge @ Large
DriverFinder.net
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Uptick or Slaptick?
As I write this little rant tonight, Wall Street is excited. The stock market has been in a bullish frame of mind now for several weeks. We are holding our own at 9800+ on the Dow. Uptick is a common phrase we hear daily on the 'street'.
Are we really hitting the bottom of this recession?
I dunno, seems pretty unlikely. Until we get the 10% unemployment number on a downward slide we are not hitting the bottom for main street. Jobs are what keep people, in any country, from standing in long soup lines.
So why is Wall Street on the uptick? Are investors ignoring the jobless numbers? Many say yes. Many say Wall Street is hedging their bets that the banks are doing better, housing is on the 'uptick' and our illustrious president is making peace. Afterall, he has already been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to prove it!
Hmmmm, so they say.
The phrase Uptick may be missing a few letters.... are they so sure it is not Slaptick?
Laurel and Hardy style?
Fact: We have double digit unemployment which is likely 20% when you count those who have used up their unemployment and those who have just given up altogether.
Fiction: O'Bama has 'saved' several thousand jobs. Really? Show me the facts behind that claim!
Fact: New homes are being built, yes they are. To the tune of .5% over this time last year. Gosh, that IS exciting....isn't it?
Fiction: Existing under water homes are getting saved or sold. Ok, I'd like to believe that.
Fact: More people are losing their homes everyday than ever before since the Great Depression.
Not to get too deep into this political rant I better close with this:
Until we see the jobless rate go down, we are NOT hitting bottom. Until we find a solution that works for health reform, we are not hitting bottom. Until we all can spend once again on essentials we need without having to check our bank balance, we are not at the bottom of this recession.
Wall Street can be foolish but as for me, I am being cautious. Our world has seen changes we never dreamed we would in our lifetime. Change that in no way feels like the change for the better we were promised by the president when he was campaigning. We don't hear 'change' for the better from him now and haven't in oh so long.
I am going to hold onto my bottomline, spend only what I must, be the best I can be on my job so I might have it longer and we just might see a 'bottom' sooner than later if we as a nation all become spendthrifts. I don't know about you, but I have no choice!
God bless you & God, please bless America!
Marge@Large
Need a trucking job? Click Here for DriverFinder.net
Are we really hitting the bottom of this recession?
I dunno, seems pretty unlikely. Until we get the 10% unemployment number on a downward slide we are not hitting the bottom for main street. Jobs are what keep people, in any country, from standing in long soup lines.
So why is Wall Street on the uptick? Are investors ignoring the jobless numbers? Many say yes. Many say Wall Street is hedging their bets that the banks are doing better, housing is on the 'uptick' and our illustrious president is making peace. Afterall, he has already been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to prove it!
Hmmmm, so they say.
The phrase Uptick may be missing a few letters.... are they so sure it is not Slaptick?
Laurel and Hardy style?
Fact: We have double digit unemployment which is likely 20% when you count those who have used up their unemployment and those who have just given up altogether.
Fiction: O'Bama has 'saved' several thousand jobs. Really? Show me the facts behind that claim!
Fact: New homes are being built, yes they are. To the tune of .5% over this time last year. Gosh, that IS exciting....isn't it?
Fiction: Existing under water homes are getting saved or sold. Ok, I'd like to believe that.
Fact: More people are losing their homes everyday than ever before since the Great Depression.
Not to get too deep into this political rant I better close with this:
Until we see the jobless rate go down, we are NOT hitting bottom. Until we find a solution that works for health reform, we are not hitting bottom. Until we all can spend once again on essentials we need without having to check our bank balance, we are not at the bottom of this recession.
Wall Street can be foolish but as for me, I am being cautious. Our world has seen changes we never dreamed we would in our lifetime. Change that in no way feels like the change for the better we were promised by the president when he was campaigning. We don't hear 'change' for the better from him now and haven't in oh so long.
I am going to hold onto my bottomline, spend only what I must, be the best I can be on my job so I might have it longer and we just might see a 'bottom' sooner than later if we as a nation all become spendthrifts. I don't know about you, but I have no choice!
God bless you & God, please bless America!
Marge@Large
Need a trucking job? Click Here for DriverFinder.net
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Trucking Jobs | The State of
In today's economy it seems we are falling, falling, from grace. By that I mean it almost seems like God has written us off. He seems to have made a decision to walk away from such an indulgent, selfish, credit card happy society and made a consious decision to let us sink or swim on our own. According to His own words from the Good Book, "what you sow, you shall also reap".
Yes, it feels that way doesn't it?
If we deserve such abandonment, and we probably do as a nation of over spenders, then where do we go from here? What do we need to do to get back to black and put a smile on God's face?
I've lived through, struggled through and managed to survive two recessions prior to this one in my 62 years on earth. My parents and grandparents survived the Great Depression. Therefore it's a given, judging by history, that we will survive this recession as well.
But where will we end up financially?
To answer that question we need to start finding some solutions. Solutions that, at this point in time, seem elusive and almost without question, none to be found.
I speak with literally hundreds of drivers a month due to my trucking jobs online portal. I've learned over the past few months that........
There are too many unemployed, too many not qualified and too many just one unemployment check from standing in a soup line. 100's have lost their homes, lost their families over loosing their job, home and earning power and quite frankly, people who haven't faced these tribulations as of yet are frightened that the same unhappy circumstance will be their future in the near future! Yes, it is scary for all of us who don't have a big savings account or some type of nest egg saved for a rainy day. And for those who have planned for a rainy day or had a great 401K that was doing well, a large number have lost 40% to 50% or more due to the recession.
I speak with literally hundreds of drivers a month due to my trucking jobs online portal. I've learned over the past few months that........
There are too many unemployed, too many not qualified and too many just one unemployment check from standing in a soup line. 100's have lost their homes, lost their families over loosing their job, home and earning power and quite frankly, people who haven't faced these tribulations as of yet are frightened that the same unhappy circumstance will be their future in the near future! Yes, it is scary for all of us who don't have a big savings account or some type of nest egg saved for a rainy day. And for those who have planned for a rainy day or had a great 401K that was doing well, a large number have lost 40% to 50% or more due to the recession.
There are answers that lead to solutions as long as we search for them, however we must search in the right places.
This brings me to our industry, Trucking and let's be quite specific, Trucking Jobs and let's be even more specific, Over the Road, long haul trucking jobs..
Where do we look for trucking jobs? Do we Google, Bing or Yahoo? Do we hang out at truck stops and talk to working drivers about their company? Is their company hiring? What kind of pay scale do they offer? How many loaded miles are they getting? Is their company laying off drivers or other workers? Are rumors floating around on the CB that their company is in trouble? Soooooo many questions for which we seek a million answers! If I may say, answers that are backed up with the truth. And the places to search are ALL OF THE ABOVE and then some!
It's a fact my dear trucking friend, trucking jobs are not growing on trees! And from what I can gather, dry van loads are hurting the most. Because no matter what the economy is doing, people have to eat, refer is doing well and should continue to do well. Refer companies are holding their own in other words and in comparison to the other frieght, i.e., dry van, flatbed, tanker, listing them in the order of which ones are in the most trouble, refer is king of the road for freight miles, pay scale and strong market share.
Let me point out that not all dry freight is in trouble. Not all flatbed or tanker segments are failing to keep their companies profitable. More of these sectors of freight available are slowing down and are in jepordy of the ability to sustain their normal standard of operations.
Let me point out that not all dry freight is in trouble. Not all flatbed or tanker segments are failing to keep their companies profitable. More of these sectors of freight available are slowing down and are in jepordy of the ability to sustain their normal standard of operations.
Ok so we've established which payloads that are in fact viable, strong freight loads that will sustain us through this time of falling markets. What you decide to do to stay afloat will depend on how well plugged in you are to the right information. They informed!
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